Alternative pathways to 30by30

We need to conserve 30% of land and sea by 2030 in order to halt nature loss, build climate resilience and protect the ecosystem services on which we all depend. But how do we go about doing it?

That’s the question that governments and international policymakers are now deliberating. At the Biodiversity COP17 in October 2026, the world will come together to review our progress towards the targets of the Global Biodiversity Framework, including 30by30. With less than five years remaining until the 2030 deadline, this is a crucial moment to make sure we’re heading in the right direction.

But how do we know that the actions we take now will lead to meaningful improvements for nature in the future?

New analysis from our scientists, working as part of a team of researchers from across the UK, sheds light on this question. By looking at different future scenarios for achieving 30by30 – each of which prioritises different values of nature – we can understand how to ensure our actions are effective and, crucially, how to avoid unintended consequences.

What we found

There’s no one-size-fits-all solution to achieving 30by30. Our new analysis shows that different approaches will result in very different conservation outcomes for nature. Whether this is endemic species, culturally important species or ecosystem services that we rely on for our wellbeing.

All approaches come with trade-offs, some of which aren’t clear. A focus only on reaching the 30% target without considering alternative pathways and options, risks exposure to unintended consequences. For example, it could end up shifting harm to nature away from newly protected 30by30 land onto nearby non-protected land.

What we are calling for

Achieving 30by30 on paper may not be enough to secure meaningful improvements for nature in the future. Implementation strategies for 30by30 need to be informed by an understanding of what we’re protecting, why we’re protecting it and what we’re choosing not to protect as a result. Only in doing so can we ensure both the quality and quantity of protected land, as well positive outcomes for nature outside those protected areas.

We recommend policymakers and practitioners follow the following principles:

  1. Consider areas contributing to the 30% target as interconnected with immediate surrounding land and more broadly with the remaining 70%, to avoid unintended consequences from an isolated approach.
  2. Take account of how nature is being valued when implementing 30by30, with a focus on the quality of land protected as much as the quantity.
  3. Seek a balanced approach to implementation, using appropriate indicators and models to understand what could be conserved or lost in any given approach.

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Take a look: Borneo

The maps below show the predicted future trends of biodiversity change in Borneo under different scenarios for achieving 30by30 and beyond. Notice how in the Nature for Nature National scenario, despite achieving 30by30 there’s significant deterioration in biodiversity from 2040 onwards.

This tells us that simply achieving 30by30 on paper will not automatically secure a healthy future for nature.

More information on these different scenarios is available within the policy brief.

Biodiversity Intactness in Borneo

A key showing coloured gradients from black to purple, orange and finally yellow. The colours demonstrate levels of biodiversity intactness, with black or purple indicating lower levels while orange and yellow indicate higher levels.

Biodiversity Intactness Index Key

A GIF showing a map of Borneo coloured in gradients through black, purple, orange and yellow. The colours demonstrate levels of biodiversity intactness, with black or purple indicating lower levels while orange and yellow indicate higher levels. This GIF shows the colours darkening in intervals between 2021 and 2060, until they cover more than half of the island. The GIF demonstrates the change in biodiversity intactness across the island of Borneo, under a ‘Business as Usual’ scenario. This scenario assumes that the current terrestrial protected area network remains as it was in 2021 and doesn’t either grow or contract.
A GIF showing a map of Borneo coloured in gradients through black, purple, orange and yellow. The colours demonstrate levels of biodiversity intactness, with black or purple indicating lower levels while orange and yellow indicate higher levels. This GIF shows the colours darkening in intervals between 2021 and 2060, particularly around the edges of the island. The GIF demonstrates the change in biodiversity intactness across the island of Borneo, under a ‘Nature as Culture’ scenario. Under the Nature Futures Framework, this scenario assumes that priorities for implementing the target to conserve 30% of land by 2030 (30by30) will prioritise values of nature including biocultural diversity, Indigenous and local knowledge, and culturally important species.
A GIF showing a map of Borneo coloured in gradients through black, purple, orange and yellow. The colours demonstrate levels of biodiversity intactness, with black or purple indicating lower levels while orange and yellow indicate higher levels. This GIF shows the colours initially getting lighter in intervals between 2021 and 2040, before worsening again until 2060. The GIF demonstrates the change in biodiversity intactness across the island of Borneo, under a ‘Nature for Nature’ scenario. Under the Nature Futures Framework, this scenario assumes that priorities for implementing the target to conserve 30% of land by 2030 (30by30) will prioritise values of nature including endemic species or ecosystem integrity.
A GIF showing a map of Borneo coloured in gradients through black, purple, orange and yellow. The colours demonstrate levels of biodiversity intactness, with black or purple indicating lower levels while orange and yellow indicate higher levels. This GIF shows the colours getting increasingly darker between 2021 and 2060, and more dramatically than in other scenarios. The GIF demonstrates the change in biodiversity intactness across the island of Borneo, under a ‘Nature for Nature national’ scenario. Adapting the Nature Futures Framework, this scenario assumes that priorities for implementing the target to conserve 30% of land by 2030 (30by30) will prioritise values of nature including endemic species or ecosystem integrity, and that it will be implemented on a national basis rather than coordinated globally.
A GIF showing a map of Borneo coloured in gradients through black, purple, orange and yellow. The colours demonstrate levels of biodiversity intactness, with black or purple indicating lower levels while orange and yellow indicate higher levels. This GIF shows the colours initially darker in intervals between 2021 and 2060, particularly around the fringes of the island. The GIF demonstrates the change in biodiversity intactness across the island of Borneo, under a ‘Nature for Society’ scenario. Under the Nature Futures Framework, this scenario assumes that priorities for implementing the target to conserve 30% of land by 2030 (30by30) will prioritise values of nature including land most important for delivering ecosystem services beyond food and materials.

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