New Natural History Museum analysis on Brazilian biodiversity demonstrates why current global climate and conservation targets need better join-up at COP30

• Measured against the landmark “30by30” pledge to protect 30% of land by 2030 (agreed at biodiversity COP15), Brazil is tracking well - already achieving a high level of spatial protection above 30% and its network of protected areas showing a high level of biodiversity intactness
• But new Natural History Museum analysis has established that Brazil is experiencing steep rates of biodiversity decline and current 30by30 conservation efforts are risking the loss of critical ecosystems by not prioritising their protection
• Critical ecosystem services are the natural processes and free services on which we depend. They deliver clean air, fresh water and food – as well as climate mitigation and adaptation. Yet the overlap between protected areas and the 30% of Brazil’s land delivering the most critical ecosystem services is just 5% of the total national land area.
• Just 19.1% of the top 30% of land in Brazil delivering the most critical ecosystem services is protected
• Released ahead of COP30, this new research provides further evidence of the importance of nature for achieving climate mitigation and adaptation, both in Brazil and beyond, and the lessons to be learned by policymakers from 30by30 implementation to date

Researchers found that despite protected areas already accounting for around 30.25% of Brazil’s total land area (therefore meeting the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity 30by30 target to protect 30% of Earth's land by 2030) the overlap between protected areas and the 30% of Brazil’s land delivering the most critical ecosystem services is just 5% of the total national land area. In total, just 19.1% of the top 30% of land in Brazil delivering the most critical ecosystem services is formally protected.

Natural History Museum Director of Policy & Partnerships Emma Woods said “This research spotlights Brazil as the host country for COP30 and home of globally significant ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest. On some levels it’s a success story - but it’s also emblematic of a much wider issue with the way 30by30 is being implemented across the globe. Just protecting 30% of any land isn’t enough; we have to conserve the precious land that helps deliver our food, energy, raw materials and clean water, and ultimately enables climate mitigation and adaptation.

“Critical ecosystems are just that, our planetary life support system and without them we would struggle to survive. Conserving them should be non-negotiable but will require a rethink and join-up of climate and nature strategies which we hope COP30 can deliver.”

Natural History Museum Bioinformatician Dr Gonzalo Albaladejo-Robles carried out the new analysis using the Museum’s Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII). BII reflects the change in ecological communities in response to human pressures, providing a rigorous indicator of biodiversity health on a scale of 0 to 100%.

Initial analysis sounded positive - he found that Brazil’s network of protected areas shows a high level of biodiversity intactness (and above the national average) at 88.82% in 2020. This is likely due to the location of its protected areas, which are largely situated within difficult-to-access areas in the Amazon basin that have experienced low levels of land conversion.

Despite this high baseline, however, biodiversity intactness across Brazil’s protected areas on average declined by 1.25 percentage points in 2020, down from 90.06% in 2000. Specific protected areas that show decline are mainly located in the margins of the Amazon basin, which are likely more exposed to land use changes and biodiversity degradation.

Natural History Museum Bioinformatician Dr Gonzalo Albaladejo-Robles says: “What really struck me was that most of the areas demonstrating an improvement in biodiversity intactness are located outside of protected areas. While this may be due to the recovery of degraded land, the abandonment of croplands and farmlands, or due to management interventions, it raises questions about the effectiveness of conservation efforts in the protected regions.”

Most striking, was the decline in biodiversity in land delivering the most critical ecosystem services. The research found biodiversity intactness decreased by 1.64 percentage points, from 65.11% in 2000 to 63.47% in 2020 in these regions. Those areas of land that are also within protected areas saw a slightly smaller decrease in biodiversity intactness, by 1.46 percentage points from 83.49% in 2000 to 82.04% in 2020.

A powerful example is the decline in mangrove forests, which are vital for climate mitigation and adaption - they effectively sequester and store carbon and provide a buffer against extreme weather events. Within the top 30% of land delivering the most critical ecosystem services, the biodiversity intactness specifically of mangroves decreased by the greatest proportion compared to other biomes, declining by 5.05 percentage points from 67.18% in 2000 to 62.14% in 2020.

Global Declines

Brazil is far from unique - though arguably plays an outsized role in sustaining global biodiversity and climate stability thanks to its vast rainforests, wetlands, and mangroves. Natural History Museum research in 2024 found that, globally, only 22% of land delivering the most critical ecosystem services is located within protected areas. However, within this 22%, biodiversity intactness is declining more quickly than it is outside protected areas.

In areas delivering the most critical ecosystem services that are not protected, biodiversity has declined by an average 1.91 percentage points between 2000 and 2020, and is more degraded, with a BII of 55.41% in 2020.

However, while BII across areas delivering the most critical ecosystem services that are also found within protected areas is the highest (73.23% in 2020), it is also declining the fastest, by 2.12 percentage points.

Natural History Museum Recommendations for COP30

Given the importance of certain ecosystem services for climate mitigation and adaptation, more focused attention on ecosystem intactness within climate change policy can create a positive feedback loop, whereby nature conservation and the 30by30 target lead to climate stabilisation and vice versa.

COP30 presents a significant opportunity to realise the synergies between climate and nature and put them into practice, including through joint United Nations programmes of work on climate change and biodiversity loss.

To successfully recognise the role of nature in climate resilience, and vice versa, the Natural History Museum advises policy making should be driven by the following principles:

1. Recognise that the 30by30 target, if implemented in a way that places more attention on conserving ecosystem services, can not only halt biodiversity loss but also deliver climate resilience and better outcomes for people.

2. Ensure ecosystem-based indicators are included in monitoring frameworks for climate policies, such as the Global Goal on Adaptation.

3. Strengthen longer term synergistic action on biodiversity loss and climate change at national and international levels.

Brazil maps:

The full policy report can be found here: Climate and nature synergies: A 30by30 case study.

Ends

Notes to Editors:

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About The Natural History Museum, London
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