The Moroccan lake on the front line of the climate crisis

In the distance, a dust tornado disturbs the dry surface of the ground. Bones bake in the dirt, bleached white under the intense sunlight. It’s hard to imagine that not long ago this was once a lake.

But wind back the clock to 2015 and that’s exactly what Lake Aoua was. For decades the lake, located in the Middle Atlas Mountains near the Moroccan city of Ifrane, was a popular tourist destination.

Holidaymakers came from across Morocco and the wider world to enjoy the waters of the lake, fed by snow melt running down from the mountains. There was boating, fishing and many other water sports… but those days are gone.

Since 2018, Lake Aoua has been dry, as the source of its water has dwindled away. Rising temperatures mean there’s not as much snow as there used to be, while rising demand for water means that less and less of the melt even gets close to the lake.

It’s a blow not just to the local economy, but to the region’s biodiversity as well. Lake Aoua is part of Ifrane National Park and was designated as a wetland of international importance, but many of the migratory birds that once visited it now no longer drop by.

These birds are just one in a chain of dominos that are now at risk of falling now that the lake has dried up, including endangered Barbary macaques and the threatened forests they call home. There’s a chance to restore Lake Aoua, but this will only happen if the needs of nature and local people can be balanced.

How is Morocco’s climate changing?

Morocco is a land of mountains, dominated by the three Atlas ranges that stretch across the middle of the country. Sitting near the edge of the African tectonic plate, these mountains have been stretched and squeezed over millions of years to form a diverse mix of dramatic peaks and valleys.

For millions of years, the Atlas Mountains have been a vital source of the country’s water. In winter, subzero temperatures blanket their highlands in snow, which melts in the spring and summer. The meltwater flows down into vast basins that feed Morocco’s streams, rivers and lakes.

The Middle Atlas Mountains are a particularly important part of this, so much so that the region near Ifrane is often referred to as ‘Morocco’s water tower’. But, over the past 30 years, this water tower has started running dry.

While Morocco is no stranger to droughts, dry periods are becoming stronger and longer lasting. This has been linked to climate change, with rising levels of greenhouse gases driving temperatures to higher and higher extremes. In 2023, the country recorded its highest ever temperature when the city of Agadir reached 50.4˚°C.

Professor Driss Ouarhache, a geologist who studies the region, remembers a time when there were four distinct seasons. Like many countries across the world, however, they’re increasingly merging into just two.

“Climate change has a major impact on our water resources,” Driss says. “Water is life, but the supply is becoming more uncertain. Levels of rainfall are lower and more erratic than they used to be, which has led to many years of droughts.”

Lahcen Oukanou, Ifrane National Park’s Head of Ecotourism, has seen these changes in action. The mountains now provide much less water than they used to, affecting everything downstream.

“There used to be three months of snow in the past,” recalls Lahcen, “but the number of days of snow is decreasing year after year. Less snow means that there is less meltwater being stored underground, meaning there is less water than there used to be.”

“As a result, many lakes are shrinking. Even the region’s three great rivers are changing, as many of the sources that used to feed them have gone.”

If emissions continue to grow, the impacts of climate change will only grow worse. Some areas of Morocco may receive just a fifth of their current water supply by 2100 as snowfall and rainfall become less common. It’s also predicted that almost 40% more water will evaporate back into the atmosphere as temperatures rise.

At the same time water supplies are dwindling, the demand for freshwater is rising. This is largely driven by agriculture, which is estimated to use 75–90% of the country’s water supplies for irrigation. In Ifrane, this is mainly used for apple farming.

With climate change making rainfall more unpredictable, farmers have turned to water from other sources. While some take directly from rivers, others use wells and pumps to take water from the underground aquifer – a layer of rock, sand or earth that contains water or allows water to pass through.

Like many countries around the world, this means Morocco’s aquifers are shrinking. The average groundwater level is falling by almost 1.5 metres a year in the river basin around Ifrane as water is taken out of the ground faster than it can be replaced.

How is climate change affecting Morocco’s wildlife?

Rising water demand and lower snowfall mean that Lake Aoua is now little more than a dusty bowl. While the local tourism industry is trying to find new ways to draw in the crowds, the lake’s wildlife has found it much harder to adapt.

The fishes were the first to go, with the bones of species such as Cobitis maroccana now littering the lakebed, followed by freshwater snails and dragonflies. By 2021 a study attempting to look for species representative of Lake Aoua’s biodiversity failed to find any on its targeted list.

Not only is the dry lake’s place as a Key Biodiversity Area threatened, but so too is its RAMSAR status – a status given to wetlands recognised for supporting the lives of both humans and wildlife.

Lake Aoua is part of a trio of lakes listed together as the Lacs d’Imouzzer du Kandar RAMSAR site, recognising their role in supporting a wide range of biodiversity, including more than 50 bird species. It’s particularly important for endangered species such as the white-headed duck, which migrates to the region during Europe’s cold winters.

Since the lake has gone dry, however, fewer birds than ever are arriving.

“Ifrane National Park’s wetlands are an important area for birds stopping on their migration from Europe to Africa,” Lahcen explains. “Climate change is having a real impact on this, as it is causing the wetlands to dry up so there are less resources for the birds.”

“Populations of birds arriving are lower than they used to be, and we have seen large declines. Even the RAMSAR sites are being immensely affected.”

The water shortages in the region also have effects beyond Lake Aoua, which is just one symptom of a much larger issue. Ifrane National Park is home to the largest Atlas cedar forests in Morocco, but this doesn’t make the already endangered trees immune to the changing climate.

“When the area dries out, the growth of its trees is very minimal,” adds Lahcen. “This is a problem, as it is the main resource for monkeys, birds and other wildlife in this region. What affects one affects them all.”

“The trees are also affected by disease, which is being exacerbated by climate change.”

As the trees die, the roots that hold the soil together go with them. This makes the region more vulnerable to soil erosion, as well as flooding from occasional heavy rain.

Together these impacts raise the risk that the subsistence crops grown locally will fail, and drive people to look for resources within the park. Overgrazing and wood cutting threatens the cedar forests further, putting them in a vicious cycle of degradation and removal.

Crop failures have also pushed subsistence farmers to look for other sources of income, such as the commercial fossil trade. The surrounding region is rich in scientifically important fossils, but there are concerns that excavating these for sale could deprive scientists of details about life in the distant past.

Our scientist Professor Susannah Maidment, who’s studied the region’s dinosaurs, says that climate change is already having an impact.

“High temperatures and drought are causing crops to fail, so subsistence farmers are increasingly having to sell fossils to survive,” Susannah says. “It’s not for us to say they can’t do this, as they have every right to survive.”

How is Morocco combatting climate change?

The challenges that Morocco faces from climate change are severe and reflect similar issues being faced by many countries around the world. These are serious threats, but there are solutions – though they’re not always easy.

One of the most important steps is to try to boost the amount of water available in Morocco. Driss says that the country’s regions are focusing on a variety of different approaches.

“To reduce the impact of droughts, Morocco continues to invest in many major projects,” adds Driss. “This includes desalination plants to provide new sources of freshwater, as well as the construction of dams and wastewater treatment plants to use what we have more effectively.”

“There is also a project to transfer freshwater within Morocco by pipelines as part of the Water Highways Project.”

In addition to these infrastructure projects, inland regions such as Ifrane are also encouraging behavioural changes among farmers so that less water is taken from the ground.

“We are trying to implement a project with the government and other organisations to reduce the amount of water being used by arboriculture in the region,” Lahcen says. “By raising awareness of the issues, we hope to lessen the amount of water being taken from the aquifer.”

At the same time, there are also efforts to move farms onto more efficient drip and sprinkler irrigation. A project by the Moroccan government and the World Bank, for example, is providing funding for improved irrigation that aims to help tens of thousands of farmers in the country.

It’s hoped these systems will increasingly be powered by solar and wind energy as Morocco works to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The country aims to produce more than half its electricity from renewable sources by 2030, and is investing heavily in infrastructure and training to support this.

Many of these jobs will be focused around cities such as Midelt and Ouarzazate, which lie in the south of Morocco. In Ifrane, the country aims to develop the tourism industry to provide new opportunities for the region’s inhabitants.

“We want to develop Ifrane National Park for ecotourism,” says Lahcen. “For instance, we have a new forestry strategy to reinforce the cedar population, and support people to look after them.”

Payments made to local people, for example, have helped to reduce levels of wood cutting and grazing in the national park by almost half. There are also projects to plant more cedars to help restore the area’s forest cover.

Susannah, meanwhile, is trying to get part of the region accredited as a geopark to attract tourists interested in Morocco’s dinosaur heritage.

“If we don’t want fossils from this region to be sold, we have to provide an alternative,” explains Susannah. “We’re hoping to achieve this by getting UNESCO to grant geopark status to the area.”

“By establishing one, we’re hoping to drive geotourism that will provide other sources of income for people living in the area.”

As for Lake Aoua itself, plans are in motion to restore the body of water to its former glory. Studies are underway to assess what changes are needed to allow the lake to recover, from redesigned irrigation channels to reduced water consumption.

It’s only the first step on a long journey, and it will take time for Lake Aoua to be restored. Nonetheless, holidaymakers and fish may once again swim in its waters while migratory birds soar overhead. This world, where people and planet can thrive together, is within reach, but only if we’re willing to work towards it.